Shane Black's The Predator was not a box office success. The franchise launched back in 1987 with the Arnold Schwarzenegger vehicle Predator, which went on to become one of the most iconic titles of its era. Due to its success, Fox pursued followups, but failed to hit the mark multiple times. Predator 2 bottomed out at just $30.6 million domestically, and 2010's Predators earned only $52 million in the States (lower than Predator's unadjusted for inflation total). The first Alien vs. Predator movie was a modest commercial hit at $80.2 million, though its critical reception was far from ideal.
The hope was that Black (who starred in the '87 original) would be able to tap into his sensibilities as a filmmaker and revitalize the Predator franchise. He had talked about wanting to make The Predator a must-see cinematic event on the level of other tentpole properties, but he fell way short of those goals. Less than a month after it opened in theaters, it's safe to say The Predator landed with a thud.
The Predator's Domestic Box Office
It's no secret The Predator didn't have the easiest path to the big screen. Black, unsatisfied with the third act, reshot the entire finale - but the changes didn't stop there. A significant amount of the film was heavily altered, with entire storylines (good guy Predators) and characters (Edward James Olmos) left on the cutting room floor. As a result, The Predator ended up as a messy genre picture that didn't feel fully developed. Most critics agreed the movie delivered high-octane (and violent) creature action, but came up well short in other areas. Nobody is expecting a Predator film to be an intimate character study, but it would have been nice if the core ensemble was somewhat memorable.
Related: The Predator Ending Explained
The mixed word-of-mouth essentially doomed the film from the get-go. Despite opening in the middle of September with holdover The Nun serving as its only high-profile competition, The Predator managed a weak $24.6 million in its first three days domestically. That figure is substantially less than the opening weekend for Alien vs. Predator ($38.2 million) and even below Predators ($24.7 million). For a movie looking to spawn multiple sequels, it was truly an inauspicious beginning.
Stumbling out of the gates, The Predator was never able to recover. In its second weekend, it fell all the way to fourth place, dropping 62.7 percent by making a measly $9.1 million. It spent the rest of September looking up at films like The House With a Clock in Its Walls and Night School, and by the time the calendar flipped to October, The Predator was toast. With the one-two combination of Venom ($80.2 million) and A Star is Born ($42.9 million) dominating the multiplex, Black's film barely registered with general audiences. In only its fourth weekend in theaters, The Predator grossed $947,358 and came in tenth place on the charts. When Predator was in its fourth weekend during the summer of '87, it made $4 million and ranked seventh.
As of this writing, The Predator has earned only $50 million domestically and is highly unlikely to match the U.S. total of the original film. That's an unfortunate development for Black and his team, but there are plenty of instances in the past where an underwhelming domestic performer is salvaged by a strong showing overseas. Sadly for The Predator, its international numbers seal its fate as one of 2018's most prominent box office disappointments.
Page 2: The Predator's Worldwide Box Office
The Predator Tanked At The Global Box Office
The Predator's production budget reportedly comes in at $88 million, which, compared to other sci-fi/genre films, is peanuts. Going by the old rule of thumb, it needed to earn approximately $176 million worldwide in order to break even. To date, the movie has earned $123.2 million. If Fox decided to pull it completely from theaters today, that would be a loss of $52.8 million. This cements the franchise's status as a weak box office draw. Predators grossed $127.2 million worldwide during its theatrical run, as a comparison.
It's borderline impossible for The Predator to rebound from this at the box office. The film has already opened in a majority of markets around the world - with only two countries waiting for it. On Thursday, October 11, The Predator will open in Italy, followed by a France theatrical premiere on Wednesday, October 17. While every little bit will help, neither of those territories are large enough to make a significant impact on the bottom line. Notably, The Predator did not receive release in China, meaning it missed out on the world's second-largest film market. The franchise has trouble getting by China's strict censors, as Predators also suffered this fate back in 2010. Black's film still has the home media release to earn some extra money, but that isn't going to be enough to save it and warrant additional sequels.
Related: The Predator's Most Brutal Reviews
The reasoning for The Predator's poor numbers overseas stems from the fact, as stated above, the franchise has never been a huge draw. Despite Fox's numerous attempts to breathe new life into the woebegone series, audiences don't seem to care about any continuations. Additionally, marketing struggled to leave a lasting impression, never convincing general audiences this was a tentpole worth seeing in theaters. In some respects, The Predator looked to be disposable. Audiences have no problem turning up for an R-rated genre film in September (IT was shattering records at this time last year), but the movie has to be good. The Predator is one instance where there is no audience/critic divide. Both parties didn't like the film, which sunk it.
Much like the Alien franchise, the future of The Predator is now in a state of flux. Any planned sequels to Black's film probably won't happen now, and with interest as low as it was, there's little incentive for Fox to pursue another reboot/reinvention down the line. There's also the matter of the studio's impending merger with Disney, which might have an impact on their various R-rated franchises. Disney CEO Bob Iger is keen on making more Deadpool movies, but those generated a ton of revenue. Disney may decide to let The Predator go by the wayside.
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It's unfortunate The Predator failed to connect, as Black clearly had bigger ideas he wanted to play with. The film's commercial failure serves as a painful reminder that not every movie is built to sustain a multi-installment franchise. Predator became a classic because of its simple premise (a group of soldiers are hunted in the jungle) and self-contained structure. There weren't any dangling plot threads that needed to be resolved; it just told its story and definitively ended it. It's tempting, especially in today's day and age, to craft a cinematic universe out of anything, but filmmakers have to be smart about it.
More: The Predator Leaves Some Ridiculous Unanswered Questions
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