Todd Phillips' Joker was much cheaper to make when compared to the typical DC film, so how much does it need to gross in order to be a success? Already one of the most talked-about films of 2019, Joker finally enters theaters this weekend. The latest from Phillips toured the fall festivals earlier this year, cementing its status as one of the year's most divisive efforts. Joker won the Golden Lion and is considered an Oscar contender by some, but it's also generated a ton of controversy due to its portrayal of violence and handling of its themes. As a precautionary measure, the U.S. military warned soldiers to be on the lookout for violence at the film's screenings.
All that talk ensures moviegoers will want to check Joker out, if only to see what all the fuss is about (and if it's deserving of all the backlash it's received). Indeed, Joker is expected to break October box office records, eclipsing the all-time mark set by Venom just last year. That news is music to WB's ears, since Joker should end up as an extremely profitable endeavor. In the landscape of modern comic book films, this on was a bargain.
The Joker production budget is reportedly $64 million. That is obviously a far cry from the more spectacle-driven tentpoles in this genre, like Aquaman ($160 million) and even Shazam ($100 million). This was by design, since Joker was conceived as a psychological character study akin to Martin Scorsese's Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy. Phillips' goal was to essentially be an anti-blockbuster and provide a new spin on comic book adaptations.
A general rule of thumb in the film industry is that a project's break even point is its production budget doubled. With that in mind, Joker needs to earn around $128 million worldwide to make its money back. It may very well get close to that in a single weekend. Joker is projected to earn $80+ million in the U.S. alone during its first three days, plus it's opening in most markets around the globe at the same time. Additionally, there isn't much in the way of competition. Joker is the only new wide release of note this weekend, and most of the holdovers have run their course at the box office. This past weekend's champion was animated film Abominable, which grossed $20.6 million domestically.
If Joker does earn as much as anticipated and gives WB a healthy return on their investment, it will be interesting to see how the studio reacts. Phillips maintains Joker is meant to be a standalone story, but there's always the possibility for sequels (especially if Joaquin Phoenix is game). There was also word early on Joker was intended to launch a new line of films called DC Dark or DC Black, which would be similar to the Elseworlds comics. All's been quiet on that front for a while, but should Joker be massively successful, it will show there's an audience for comic book films that go off the beaten path and try something different. The film could be a one-time flash in the pan or the start of something larger.
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