When players first begin their journey in Red Dead Redemption 2 they find Arthur, along with the rest of the Van der Linde gang, fighting for survival in the snowy mountains of Ambarino. While it quickly becomes clear the gang is on the run thanks to an incident called "Blackwater," the game takes its time filling in the details. Even though players are never given a complete story of what happened at Blackwater, various missions and dialogue during Red Dead Redemption 2's storyline allow players to piece most of the incident together.
Fans of the original Red Dead Redemption likely recognize Blackwater's name when it's first mentioned in RDR2's first chapter. The West Elizabeth-based town serves as a critical story location in the first game and reprises that role in the prequel. From what the game informs the player, the Van der Linde gang planned to rob a ferry that was carrying a large sum of money to the port town. Despite the gang's top gun, Arthur, being preoccupied with other business, Micah Bell was able to pressure Dutch until the group went through with the plan.
The mission reportedly got off to a good start, but it was not long until the entire gang was swarmed by Pinkertons. Players learn that, in the heat of the fight, Dutch killed an innocent woman, something players later realize is not out of character for Dutch. As the gang fought to make its escape, multiple members of the group were injured, including both Sean McGuire and John Marston. MacGuire was also captured, which is what led to the Chapter 2 mission "The First Shall Be The Last," in which Arthur and the gang rescue him.
The incident at Blackwater resulted in the direct death of two gang members, Jenny Kirk and Davey Callander, after they were shot. It also resulted in the capture of a third member, Mac Callander, who was later killed by the Pinkertons. Considering the gang was forced to flee into the mountains after the failure, Blackwater could also be credited with causing the gang to meet Sadie Adler, who subsequently became a key member of the group.
As far as how the Blackwater mission went wrong, Dutch implies in "Outlaws from the West" that the Pinkertons must have known they were coming. Since players discover later Micah has been snitching on the gang, it would not be surprising if he had a hand in informing the Pinkertons of the Van der Linde gang's movements. Of course, just like most of the Blackwater event, Red Dead Redemption 2 does not provide enough details for the player to say for sure if Micah was involved.
Because Arthur was not present for Blackwater, players never get to experience what actually happened directly before the events of Red Dead Redemption 2. While the results of the mission included three members of the gang dead, as well as the beginning of Dutch's spiral, it did allow for something positive. In Red Dead Redemption 2's ending, John Marston splits the $150,000 of Blackwater money with Sadie and Charles, allowing all three characters to move on from their outlaw ways and begin to live a normal life.
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